Super Bowl LV Preview & Betting Odds

It almost seems like a dream. We are at the culmination of a crazy season. It was riddled with question marks and then set precedence for other sports to follow.

Now we are a month into a brand new year, and it feels almost like a rinse wash and repeat. In early February of 2020, the news was hitting of a pending pandemic called coronavirus—that confused the hell out of anyone who knows anything about viruses because all flus and many colds are coronaviruses… so come on, guys, let’s be a little more specific—and just one month later everything was shut down.

Here we are, a full year later, and things are still shut down in many parts of the country. Heck, this will be the lowest attended Super Bowl in the history of the Super Bowl. Can we get back to normal now, please, because this ‘new normal’ that we are getting brainwashed to accept is NOT *%#ing normal?

Seriously, 14,500 fans plus 7,500 healthcare workers is not an acceptable number for something as important to the world of sports as the Super Bowl. In 2009, the Steelers vs. Cardinals played in Raymond James Stadium, and there were 70,774 people in the stands.

Why am I going on about this?

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers made history by becoming the first team in the history of the sport to make it to the Super Bowl while their town and stadium are the bid-winning host city. However, they got severely shafted by our good buddy, Mr. ‘Rona, and instead of people smashing the gates from all over Florida, get just 14,500 fans in the seats, most of which will be from elsewhere in the US.

 

Super Bowl LV Betting Odds

The Kansas City Chiefs came out on the betting odds boards as 3-point favorites at sites like sportsbetting.ag, Pinnacle, and Bookmaker over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Since then, the line is still holding strong with no movement either way at most shops.
When we consider the power ratings, the Buccaneers are a point better on most power rating indexes. That said, even ESPN’s questionable FPI that has the Chiefs a little less than one point better stills points us to a high probability that Mr. Super Bowl (Tom Brady) and the Buccs will get the back door cover against the spread. When you factor in the fact that Tampa Bay has home-field advantage, an outright win for the Buccaneers at +150 starts to look mighty valuable.

Kansas City @ Tampa Bay by the Numbers

The Buccaneers have the No. 2 total scoring offense in the NFL. They average 30.74 points per game. On top of this, they also have the No. 2 passing offense, at 287.11 yards per game. Comparatively, the Chiefs have the No. 5 scoring offense in the league at 29.61points per game (just a little more than a point fewer) and the No.1 passing offense in the league with 305.56 yards per affair.
When it comes to running the ball, the Chiefs rank 16th with 112.78, and the Buccs rank 27th with 98.11. Their number of plays and yards per play are quite comparable at 64.16 plays per game to 65.78 for the Buccs and Chiefs, respectively, and 6.00 ypp for TB and 6.36 for KC per game.

Defensively, the Buccaneers rank No. 9 overall in score allowed with 22.32, to the Chiefs No. 10 ranking at 22.39. Virtually the same in this stat. But that Tampa Bay run defense, which ranks No. 1 in the league, is going to make the Chiefs’ offense a little more one-dimensional than usual. Tampa Bay only allows 81.37 per game, compared to the Chiefs 121.94. Passing, the Chiefs secondary is a bit better, allowing just 233.83 per game compared to the Buccaneers’ 249.37. Tampa Bay comes back, and counters with a better yards per play allowed stat, which ranks 7th in the NFL at just 5.15 yards per play. The Chiefs are middle of the road, at No. 16 in this category.

This is going to be a battle to the end, and anything can happen. But the Chiefs have had narrow wins all season. So much so that they are just 1-8-1 against the spread over their last ten games. So, take the Buccaneers to get the backdoor cover at +3