Category: Horse Racing

The short answer is not many and, granted the highly commercialised nature of modern equine breeding, that should come as no real surprise. The Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe may be, by some way, the most valuable race run in Europe, but even a prize fund of €5 million pales into insignificance when compared with potential earnings, especially for stallions, in the multimillion-pound breeding industry. It makes economic sense for top-class thoroughbreds – the pick of the middle-distance division included – to be retired to stud at the peak of their careers, as three-year-olds or, at the latest, as four-year-olds.

At the time of writing, in 50 runnings of the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe since 1974, the roll of honour comprises 27 three-year-olds, 18 four-year-olds and just five five-year-olds. No horse aged older than five has won since the seven-year-old Matrico, way back in 1932. For the record, the five-year-old winners in the last 50 years were Star Appeal, trained by Theo Grieper and ridden by Greville Starkey, in 1975, Tony Bin, trained by Luigi Camici and ridden by John Reid, in 1988, Marienbard, trained by Saeed bin Suroor and ridden by Frankie Dettori, in 2002, Waldgeist, trained by André Fabre and ridden by Pierre-Charles Boudot, in 2019 and, most recently, Alpinista, trained by Sir Mark Prescott and ridden by Luke Morris. Interestingly, of that quintet, Alpinista was the only mare.

Known locally as ‘the race that stops a nation’, the Melbourne Cup is run over 3,200 metres, or just shy of two miles in imperial measurements, at Flemington Racecourse, on the banks of the Maribyrnong River in Melbourne, Victoria, on the first Tuesday in November. The race was established in 1861 by the Victorian Turf Club, which, three years later, merged with the competing Victorian Turf Club to form the modern body, the Victoria Racing Club. Nowadays, the Melbourne Cup, which boasts A$8 million in total prize money – of which A$4.4 million goes to the winner – has the distinction of being the most valuable handicap on the whole.

Generally speaking, multiple winners of the Melboure Cup have been few and far between, although the inaugural winner, Archer, owned and trained by Etienne de Mestre and ridden by John Cutts, went on to become the first dual winner. Indeed, the son of William Tell won by six lengths in 1861 and eight in 1862 and could, conceivably, have become the first triple winner but for being refused entry in 1863, after connections overlooked the deadline for acceptance.

As it was, the next horse to win the Melbourne Cup more than once was Peter Pan, trained by Frank McGrath Snr., who was successful as a three-year-old in 1932 and as a five-year-old in 1934, thereby becoming the first multiple, but non-consecutive, winner. Thereafter, Rain Lover (1968, 1969) and Think Big (1974, 1975) recorded back-to-back victories and Makybe Diva (2003, 2004, 2005) became the first horse to win the Cup three times.

Run annually, over an extended mile and three-quarters on Town Moor, Doncaster in South Yorkshire, in September, the St. Leger is the oldest of the British Classic races. The race was inaugurated, as a two-mile event for three-year-old colts and fillies, on a course incorporatung part of Cantley Common, on September 24, 1776. Two years later, it was transferred to its present location and named after its founder, Colonel (later Major-General) Anthony St. Leger, a former Member of Parliament for the constituency of Great Grimsby, Lincolnshire.

The St. Leger Stakes was contested over two miles until 1814 – five years after the inauguration of the 2,000 Guineas at Newmarket – and, nowadays, along with the 2,000 Guineas and the Derby constitutes the so-called English Triple Crown. The modern incarnation of the St. Leger has a safety limit of 20, but it was not always that way and, in 1830, Memnon, trained by Richard Shepherd and ridden by William “Glorious Bill” Scott, easily justified favouritism when beating 29 rivals by three lengths.

By contrast, the smallest field ever assembled for the St. Leger Stakes was just three. Following the outbreak of World War I in August 1914, the race was run, as the “September Stakes” on the Rowley Mile Course at Newmarket. In 1917, Gay Grusader, trained by the “Wizard of Manton”, Alec Taylor Jr. and ridden by Steve Donoghue, was sent off at prohibitive odds of 2/11 and easily dispatched his two rivals to win a wartime version of the aforementioned Triple Crown.

With the Grand National just around the corner now and talk of the favourite potentially romping home, let’s throw caution to the wind and instead go for a ‘no hoper’ or more politely stated ,rank outsider when it comes to our horse racing betting selection. Why? Well, because if your luck is in, you win big… really big.. and if it isn’t, it’s not like you ‘expected’ to win anyway.

For a bit of inspiration it’s worth remembering that an Outsider winning the Grand National is, although not common, certainly not entirely new ground. If you need a little inspiration as to how an Outsider can claim the biggest prize in racing look no future than the history of the event.

There have been five Grand National winners over the 175 races of odds in the triple figure range, and all of those were 100-1. That’s not the biggest surprise as that has often been the biggest odds on offer in the race anyway. In chronological order these 100-1 shots were Tipperary Tim (1928), Gregalach (1929), Caughoo (1947), Foinavon (1967) and Mon Mome (2009). There have been four winners at odds of 66-1 and five at 50-1 (most recently Noble Yeats in 2022). The most comical, shall we say, win was perhaps 100-1 shot Caughoo in 1947. After the race the jockey on second placed Lough Conn accused Eddie Dempsey, who rode Caughoo to victory, of hiding near a fence in dense fog and rejoining the race at the head of the pack. It led to both a physical fight and legal action but Dempsey was soon absolved of wrongdoing. I wonder if they’ll be any punch ups at this year’s Grand National?

And so, which outsider horses have a chance of winning the 2024 Grand National? Well of course that’s the big question, and with the considerable odds in mind, other competitors, fences, ground and more, you’ll need a combination of correctly assessing value as well as having Lady Luck peering over your shoulder. So really this is a question for the individual, but if you’re looking for a big odds tips i’d go with Coko beach at 40-1. The long odds are understandable on account of last years Grand National effort, but he had lost his left hind shoe. The 8 year old impressed in February’s Grand National Trial and has been shown not to get overawed by a big field, having won the Thyestes Chase and the likes in the past. Worth a punt in my view!